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NVIDIA delivered another blowout quarter (Q3 2025 – ended 26 October, 2025 – released 19 November, 2025), significantly beating Wall Street expectations, and for some, partially alleviating (perhaps only temporarily) concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Demand for AI infrastructure remains extremely strong, with the new Blackwell graphic processing unit (GPU) architecture powering Nvidia’s latest high-performance chips for AI and Data Centres ramping faster than anticipated. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Technology & Telecommunications.

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This week, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) lifted the lid on the internal financial projections of OpenAI and Anthropic – the companies at the centre of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. 

By way of background, Dario Amodei, once a senior leader at OpenAI, parted ways with Sam Altman in 2021 amid strategic and perhaps personal differences and launched Anthropic that same year, seeded it with a $124 million Series A. The debut of ChatGPT in late 2022 blindsided the Amodei and handed OpenAI 100 million users overnight, along with an 18-month revenue lead. Anthropic pivoted sharply to enterprise-grade deployments of its Claude models, a bet that has now propelled its private-market valuation to $183 billion – still trailing OpenAI’s $500 billion mark, but closing the gap through disciplined business to business (B2B) focus. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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In this blog post, I (finally) take the focus off the artificial intelligence (AI) boom/bubble. Instead, I want to look at whether there are other factors investors should be considering when it comes to time to rebalance portfolios, and as 2025 concludes and 2026 commences.

First – and granted this one’s a bit of fun – the Santa Claus rally. Is there any evidence that such a thing exists? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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Since my last column Is there a stock market bubble? Here are the warning signs, which was on the topic of recognising bubbles, subtle shifts have been occurring in the risk postures of major global investors that suggest you now need to behave more cautiously than before.

Some of those behaviours have been reflected in the relative outperformance over the last month of defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities, beating technology, artificial intelligence (AI) and defence. And some of the same behaviours also reflect the changing picture of liquidity, which, of course, is the fuel that inspires all thematically driven rallies.

This article was first published in The Australian on 30 October 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Market commentary.

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Wall Street’s S&P 500 dropped more than one per cent last week, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell three per cent. It’s really nothing in the scheme of things. That’s because the Nasdaq 100 is up more than 130 per cent in three years, and the S&P 500 is more than eighty-five per cent higher since October 2022. Nevertheless, last week’s turn-down was the worst week for the Nasdaq in seven months. What the index price declines perhaps don’t reflect, however, is a much sharper shift in the market’s risk appetite. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The father of a field of mathematics known as fractal geometry, Benoit Mandelbrot, in his fantastic book, The (Mis)behaviour of Markets, observed that market price movements, unlike the smooth curves assumed in traditional financial models, are jagged and irregular, meaning that large price swings are more frequent than expected, and periods of high volatility can be followed by more high volatility. His work provides a more realistic framework for understanding and modeling risk, noting also that volatility in markets tends to cluster.

In my experience, I’ve observed those volatility clusters often mark turning points in markets. To be clear, not all periods of heightened volatility are turning points, but almost all turning points are accompanied by greater volatility. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) delivered its full-year 2025 (FY25) results on 6 November, posting cash earnings of $7.091 billion – essentially flat on FY24 and a touch below the market’s $7.18 billion consensus.

The share price sold off about two per cent on the day, and we believe the relatively soft trading since is due to investors focusing on two things:

1. Higher-than-expected loan impairment charges (up 14 per cent to A$833 million), driven mainly by missed payments, a handful of individual business banking exposures and some unsecured retail lending stress, and
2. Relatively flat earnings and final dividend 85 cents per share, bringing the full-year dividend per share (DPS) up one cent to 170 cents, fully franked.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services.

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Not only are stock market valuations stretched, but on the metrics that are most reliable for predicting future returns, the U.S. market is at an all-time high. We can say that factually and therefore categorically.  It’s not a matter of opinion. 

It’s worth remembering to bring everything back to the data to avoid the influence of emotions. 

The important question then is not whether reducing your exposure and rebalancing portfolios results in a missed opportunity to maximise gains, but whether you’ll regret not doing that, and instead of retiring in two years, being forced to work for another six or seven. Indeed, and upon reflection, there will always be regret; the decision is about which regret is worse. Letting gains evaporate might be worse than missing out on a few more dollars.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 November 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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In U.S. trading overnight, Nvidia achieved a market capitalisation of US$5 trillion, after which Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Google’s parent company Alphabet delivered their September quarter earnings.

The results were impressive, as expected. Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of US$77.67 billion, beating estimates of US$75.33 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.13, surpassing the US$3.67 forecast. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Back in October, I examined the emerging trend of interest rate cuts across the Western world, looking at why they were occurring and how different economies were responding. Since then, rate cuts have continued in several countries. In this update, I return to the same six economies (Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand), incorporating more recent inflation expectations and labour-market data to assess what these developments may signal for 2026.
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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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