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Every day, I am met with articles quoting commentators telling me that the market is high and, therefore, on the precipice of a correction. Let’s get one thing straight – markets don’t fall just because they are high. They can stay high and continue upwards for a long time. It is also a mistake to believe that a catalyst is required to cause the market to crash. Investors, to this day, debate the trigger for the 1987 crash. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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That’s a headline designed to capture your attention. If it has done so, it is highly probable that a crash is one of your fears. And for some people with that fear, the concern is great enough that it has impacted their investing outcomes and returns. For example, they may have held off buying shares in a company that subsequently rocketed higher, simply because you feared the market was due for a correction or crash. You may have also sold a stock too early, even though nothing about the company in which you owned the shares had changed. You simply thought some exogenous event would trigger a broad market correction. And, in a more extreme example, you were right in your prediction about the market falling, but the shares you owned continued to climb. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick.

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One of the most frequently asked questions by investors following Trump’s election victory is: what sectors will do well? While much remains unknowable about Trump’s second term, his “promises made, promises kept” statement during his victory speech suggests not all is a mystery.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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There comes a point in our lives where we are exposed to the thought or process of retiring. It could come one day when we open our annual superannuation statement. Or it could come when a parent or workplace mentor announces their intentions to hang up the tools and move into the next phase of life… Continue…

by Michael Gollagher Posted in Companies, Property, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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As we noted earlier last week, Guzman y Gomez (ASX:GYG) has wrapped up its first full financial year since going public with exceeding expectations and its prospectus guidance provided in May.  

The 26 per cent increase in network sales and 48 per cent rise in underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), which were both slightly ahead of prospectus forecasts has prompted house broker Barrenjoey to adjust its expectations upwards.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.

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BHP (ASX:BHP) reported FY24 results that were generally in line with estimates. As one of the most poured-over companies on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), the lack of any great surprise is, in itself, no great surprise. Revenue grew three per cent to US$55.7 billion, while underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) grew four per cent to US$29 billion, the latter being slightly above consensus of US$28.7 billion and driven by a one to two per cent increase in copper equivalent production and higher commodity prices, the latter helping to offset a jump in costs.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.

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Since 2022, we have predicted that small cap stocks, especially those representing innovative businesses with pricing power, would do well in an environment of disinflation and positive economic growth.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Small Caps.

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The question, ‘my parents are cash-strapped, so why don’t they sell their house?’ is a familiar topic of discussion among us, Gen X’ers, aged between 43 and 59 in 2024.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Property.

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As the world watches the U.S. vote, it turns the page on a new and arguably uncertain chapter. I have just read a startling essay about Donald Trump’s character. One marvels at Americans’ willingness to vote for such a person as President. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Popular.

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In this week’s video insight, Brett Craig, Director at Aura Credit Holdings, our partner in private credit, and I discuss some common myths surrounding private credit. Together, we explore the evolving landscape of lending to small and medium-sized corporates in Australia, shedding light on the risks, returns, and opportunities. Brett provides valuable insights into the Aura Private Credit Income Fund, and we take a closer look at the strategies used to mitigate risks in this growing market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Video Insights.

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