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The equity bull market has been tough for small company stocks and their investors. The current decade started out with promise. After the short, sharp pandemic bear market in 2020, small cap stocks significantly outpaced the tech-fuelled S&P 500 Index during the post-pandemic bull market ending in December 2021. This was partly because the artificial intelligence (AI)-Tech darlings hadn’t garnered the momentum and euphoria required to concentrate flows of capital and drive the media narratives that produced their immense popularity and stock-market leadership. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Small Caps.

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Outgoing U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks have sparked debate. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference on October 14, Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) long-running quantitative tightening (QT) program – its methodical unwinding of the balance sheet bloated by pandemic-era stimulus – may be “coming into view” for an end.

While perceived as a relief for many equity investors, halting QT might not actually be the good news equities investors are hoping for. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Foreign Currency, Global markets.

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With the U.S. stock market hovering at levels some describe as ‘stretched’, economic indicators are flashing mixed signals, prompting some observers to raise the spectre of stagflation – a toxic brew of stagnant growth and persistent inflation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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At face value, Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) is best known as a mineral sands producer. However, the market continues to undervalue the hidden strategic and financial assets embedded across its diversified portfolio. With a current market capitalisation of over A$3 billion, Iluka trades below the implied value of its tangible holdings alone  – ~A$1 billion in mineral sands inventory, ~A$1.3 billion in rare earths concentrate feedstock (potentially greater than A$2 billion Net Present Value (NPV)) and a A$450 million equity stake in Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) – therefore ascribing very little value to the core mineral sands business. Continue…

by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.

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During a boom, warnings of bubbles and crashes are swept under a rug woven with proclamations such as “we’ve entered a multi-year bull market” and “there’s so much money on the sidelines waiting to invest”.

This article was first published in The Australian on 06 October 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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In today’s dynamic financial landscape, and with public market volatility constantly rising, investors are increasingly seeking opportunities that strike a balance between solid returns and stability and diversification. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.

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I joined Ausbiz with Clint Maddock, Founder and Director at Digital Asset Funds Management – our newest partner, an Australian investment manager specialising in digital asset markets – to discuss the growing role of digital assets like Bitcoin in investment portfolios. Once considered purely speculative, digital assets are now increasingly recognised as a legitimate component of diversification, sitting alongside equities, bonds, and property. We explored why they’re moving into the mainstream, the opportunities they present, and how investors can approach the space with a balanced view on both strategy and risk.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, TV Appearances.

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I recently read an interesting post on Substack about the state of the market. However, there was one paragraph whose significance might have been missed, even by those who subscribe to the author’s musings.  

Here’s the paragraph in question, followed by what I hope will prove a useful explanation.

The paragraph was titled “No Equity Risk Premium.”

“Meanwhile the macro-middle scenario that has prevailed in 2025 has helped stocks push higher, and with still elevated bond yields that has squeezed the forward-looking “prospective equity risk premium” deeper into the negatives. That may not matter this week, this month, or even this quarter, but it does tell us the forward looking risk vs return set points to an entirely different regime than what we’ve become accustomed to.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.

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In 2025, so far, the seven most influential U.S. tech giants – The Magnificent Seven, or Mag 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Nvidia) – have continued to assert their dominance and reinforce their role in determining the S&P 500’s trajectory. Despite what appears to be artificial intelligence (AI) hype, or perhaps because of it, the seven giants have collectively outpaced the broader S&P 500’s 12.47 per cent year-to-date (YTD) rise, delivering a gain of 15.9 per cent through Monday’s close. At the same time, however, their market-capitalisation share has dropped slightly from a peak of 32.2 per cent in mid-August to 31.3 per cent of the S&P 500’s total value. That indicates some stocks outside of the Mag 7 have been outperforming them. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Polen Capital, Stocks We Like, Technology & Telecommunications.

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NVIDIA delivered another blowout quarter (Q3 2025 – ended 26 October, 2025 – released 19 November, 2025), significantly beating Wall Street expectations, and for some, partially alleviating (perhaps only temporarily) concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Demand for AI infrastructure remains extremely strong, with the new Blackwell graphic processing unit (GPU) architecture powering Nvidia’s latest high-performance chips for AI and Data Centres ramping faster than anticipated. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Technology & Telecommunications.

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